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A LESSON IN TRADING
Originally posted March 20, 1999: Volume 1, Issue 13

The trade deadline is usually a disappointment for hockey fans. Rarely are there as many trades as are rumoured when the deadline approaches. Those trades that come to pass are often minor at best. The art of the modern hockey deal has become sufficiently complicated that an eleventh hour flurry of transactions seems to be a thing of the past. Nevertheless, the news media and the internet abound with rumours of what will happen before Tuesday. More often than not, these rumours never concretize into real deals; generally, they disappear into the recycling bin along with yesterday's newspaper.

It is beyond the scope of this article to revisit all these rumours. But what we can do is review the factors that will determine the nature and frequency of trading over the next few days. What do general managers have to think about before they can pull the trigger on a trade?

Is Darren going anywhere?
Darren
The Number of Teams in the Playoff Hunt: There are 27 teams in the NHL at present. 16 of those teams make the playoffs. This season, some 21 teams still have a reasonable opportunity to make the playoffs. Those teams are unlikely to make the type of deal that will assist other teams unless they themselves will be upgraded in the process. That leaves six teams -- Tampa Bay, Chicago, N.Y. Islanders, Washington, Vancouver and Nashville -- who will be prepared to trade established stars or veterans. Not surprisingly, most of this year's rumours involve the three worst teams in the league, the Lightning, the Blackhawks and the Islanders.

No takers for Alex
Alex
Contracts: A number of teams are looking to unload big salaries to teams who are prepared to pay the price for a Stanley Cup. Los Angeles recently waived Steve Duchesne and his four year, $15+ million contract. Chicago would like to unload Doug Gilmour and his three year, $18 million deal. Tampa Bay is rebuilding and would like to trade veterans Wendel Clark, Stephane Richer and Bill Ranford, all of whom have big contracts. The Islanders are looking to trade Trevor Linden and Tommy Salo. Vancouver would be happy to send Alexander Mogilny on his way. These are players who -- with some exceptions -- are under contract for far more than they are worth. Whether trades are consummated for these players is contingent upon how much a playoff contender is willing to spend.

Budgets: Money is also a factor in determining which teams can or cannot help themselves. Some teams -- Detroit and Dallas, for example -- appear to have a bottomless well of money and can make deals with little need to consider the bottom line. On the other hand, playoff-worthy teams like Calgary and Ottawa lack the resources to make significant acquisitions. Indeed, Calgary was forced to trade Theoren Fleury because it could not afford to sign him. Montreal was forced to trade Mark Recchi and will likely deal Vincent Damphousse for the same reason. Both these teams were still in the playoff hunt at the time they made those deals. Ottawa, second in the league overall, might be prepared to "rent" a player for the playoff run, but they cannot make any long term financial commitments. Keep in mind, however, that sometimes desperation will force a team to forsake fiscal prudence and common sense. Watch the Flyers in this regard.

Wendel is going somewhere, but likely not Toronto
Wendel
Free Agency: Players who are unrestricted ("Group Three") free agents at season's end are prime candidates for a trade. Already, we have seen Mark Recchi and Theoren Fleury dealt by teams who were intent upon getting something for these players rather than losing them for nothing. Vincent Damphousse is an unrestricted free agent after this season. As we have already suggested, playoff contending teams who have such players face a difficult dilemma. Do they trade these players, get something in return but miss the playoffs? Or, do they keep them for the playoff run and lose them for nothing at season's end?

Restricted ("Group Two") free agents are less likely to be traded. Teams who have players becoming Group Two free agents have the opportunity to match any salary offer for these players. If they do not match, they receive draft picks in return. The risk of losing such a player for "nothing" is not present in the same way that it is for an unrestricted free agent. Rumours seem to have focussed on one Group Two free agent in particular -- Boris Mironov of Edmonton -- because it appears that Glen Sather is intent upon dealing him for some help. But Sather's willingness to deal Mironov has less to do with his status as a Group Two free agent than it does with Edmonton's surplus on defence.

He's not coming to Toronto, either
Dougl
Surplus and Deficit: Teams which have a surplus of players at one position are more likely to deal one of those players for help, whether they are playoff bound or not. Toronto is carrying nine defencemen at present, and a deal for Jason Smith looks to be likely. New York Islanders have two goaltenders capable of being starters (even though Felix Potvin is out for the season). Tommy Salo has therefore been the subject of much discussion. Edmonton has three mobile offensive defencemen capable of manning the point on the power play -- Roman Hamrlik, Janne Niinimaa and Boris Mironov -- and are therefore looking to exchange Mironov for help. New Jersey has an abundance of good young forwards whom it can deal for help.

Teams with a deficit at one position are also more likely to make a trade. Philadelphia badly needs help on defence, and have a surplus on offence. Any deal that the Flyers make will almost certainly involve giving up a forward -- possibly Mikael Renberg -- for a defenceman. Detroit also wants to shore up its defence, and may deal Darren McCarty to do so.

Winning and Losing: The "Scotty Bowman" rule -- never trade after a loss -- has no application when the trade deadline is imminent. A rule of thumb is that teams which are on a losing streak as the trade deadline approaches are more likely to make a trade than teams which are on a winning streak. These teams can no longer wait for the right time. Philadelphia and Phoenix have been mired in such streaks, and they appear to be prime candidates to do something. Dallas, Ottawa and Colorado, on the other hand, appear set in their ways, and will likely do little more than tinker with their rosters.

Time: That leads us to our final point: time is of the essence. General managers like Toronto's Michael Smith can no longer wait patiently until the best deal comes along. The trade deadline imposes an artificial sense of urgency on teams so they can get their houses in order for the playoffs. This is why hockey fans have always been hopeful that the day of the trade deadline will bring lots of activity and excitement. In recent years, this has not been the case. Here is hoping that things will be different this year.

[Photos courtesy of Derek's Hockey Photos.]