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WANTED: GOAL SCORING Originally posted October 25, 1998: Volume 1, Issue 4
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It is probably too early for them to panic, but executives in the NHL's head office in New York must be a little concerned about what is happening in the league so far this season. During the summer the league trumpetted a number of rule changes that were designed to increase goal scoring. These changes included: increasing the size of the attacking zone by two feet and moving the goal line another two feet away from the rear boards; reducing the size of the goal crease; clamping down on bulky equipment that made goaltenders resemble the Michelin Man; and adding a second referee for some games. It did not hurt that the Nashville Predators -- an expansion team -- were joining the league.
The trend cannot be heartening. The last time goal scoring dropped below an average of five per game over an entire season was in 1953-54. Here are some statistics to tell you just how bad it is: * Teams are scoring 4.87 goals per game, down almost half a goal from last year. * More than two thirds of the games this year have resulted in five goals scored or less. * There have been 16 shutouts this season, involving 18.39% of the games played. Last year witnessed a record 160 shutouts, and that involved only 15.01% of the games played. If the present pace continues, last year's record will be shattered. * Only one team (Toronto!) has averaged more than three goals per game, while one other team (Detroit) is averaging exactly three. The usual explanations for the absence of goal scoring -- the neutral zone trap and an excess of big, fat but skilled goaltenders -- ought not to have prevailed in this new season. Indeed, teams are less likely today to stress size and grit than they are speed and skill. Toronto, for example, has trashed the quasi-trap system employed by Mike Murphy last year. Pat Quinn has opted for a faster style of game, and smaller skill players like Sergei Berezin are flourishing. It appears, however, that the effect of the new rules has yet to trickle through the league. Gary Bettman recently opined that it will take half a season for the new rules to have an impact. The NHL recognizes that it has a golden opportunity to showcase its game while the NBA is on strike. More goal scoring is a necessary element of selling the game. Perhaps a hopeful sign occurred on the evening of October 24th. Eleven games were played that evening and 67 goals were potted, an average of more than six per game. Not the high scoring days of the 1980s, certainly, but perhaps a sign that the new rules are beginning to have an impact. We can only hope.
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It is likely that nobody expected these changes to have an immediate impact. Nevertheless, a disturbing reality is emerging for the league (and its fans) early in this season. In spite of the league's best efforts, goal scoring is down. Goaltenders appear to be adapting too well to the changes. In the season's first 16 days (87 games), goal scoring has plummetted to under five goals per game. To put that into perspective, observe that in 1997-98, the league experienced its worst goal drought in more than 40 years, with snipers connecting an average 5.28 times per game. Believe it or not, it is getting even worse.