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OVERHYPING THE PENGUINS Originally posted October 12, 2005
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The Penguins will be a good team this season, likely a lot better than they were in 2003-04. That won't be too difficult a goal to achieve. In 2003-04, the Penguins finished with the worst record in the NHL. The Pens have made a number of veteran acquisitions that should help acclimatize budding star Sidney Crosby. Mario Lemieux will play another season, and even at 39 years of age he will have something left in the tank. Nevertheless, a lot of people, dazzled by the offensive potential of this team, are overlooking some glaring deficiencies. Pittsburgh will not win the Stanley Cup, and in our view it is equally unlikely that the Pens will win their division. If they make the playoffs they should regard this as a successful season.
The Penguins will be an old team -- LeClair, Recchi, Palffy, Odelein and Lemieux are well into their 30s. As much as they have made some significant free agent acquisitions, they lost one of their best players from 2003-04 when Alexei Morozov elected not to return from Russia. People may be expecting too much too soon from Sidney Crosby. The Sports Forecaster predicts he will attain 87 points. The Hockey News predicts he will get 81 points. He turned 18 years old in August. 80 points is a lot of points for a rookie. Can anyone remember who the last 18 year-old was to attain that threshold? Indeed, Crosby's boss and linemate Mario Lemieux did hit 100 points in his rookie year -- but he began the year at 19 years of age. The Penguins have a number of defenceman who have considerable offensive upside. Gonchar, Tarnstrom and Jackman will all get their share of points. But what have the Penguins done to keep the puck out of the net? Jocelyn Thibault -- felled by an early season injury -- was not good enough to remain the starting goalie on the woeful Chicago Blackhawks squad, a team that finished precisely one point ahead of the Penguins. The Hawks felt it necessary to upgrade to Nikolai Khabibulin. The Penguins are banking that defense will not matter in the new NHL. Even in the new NHL, that is a high-risk gamble.
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