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PANIC IN LEAF NATION
Originally posted August 4, 2005

Barely days have passed since free agent season opened and the Leaf Nation is already suffering a sort of collective apoplexy. Diehard Leaf fans are watching with great frustration as teams like Boston and Philadelphia snag the biggest free agent fish in the pool.

Bobby Clarke’s signing of Peter Forsberg in particular has galvanized the city against GM John Ferguson Jr. The local radio talk shows are buzzing with angry callers demanding to know why Ferguson is fiddling while the leaves are burning. The media have picked up the scent. Steve Simmons wrote in the Toronto Sun that the Leafs had “bungled their cap situation”. Even Damien Cox of the Toronto Star – whose normal inclination is to swim against the tide – decided to ride this wave on a surfboard:

“The Leafs, without question,” he wrote recently, “have been caught utterly flat-footed by the frenzy of activity over the past two weeks.” Cox included in his time frame the period prior to August 1st when the Leafs found themselves in a sticky mess involving Owen Nolan.

To hear the talk, one would think that the Leafs are not going to be able even to ice a roster this season.

Now, everyone, take a deep breath, then exhale…

For starters, the Philadelphia Flyers have not substantially improved their team. Forsberg is a star, but keep in mind that the Flyers have lost Roenick, Amonte, Leclair and Zhamnov. In preparation for the new open game, they have signed three large but relatively immobile defencemen in Hatcher, Rathje and Therien. And, barely three weeks into the new CBA, the Flyers already find themselves perilously close to the cap maximum (so much so that they had to deal Roenick to make the Forsberg signing work). So let’s not award them with the Stanley Cup just yet.

The Leafs have opted to let someone else overpay Roberts and Nieuwendyk – both players in their late 30s. They chose not to overpay Tie Domi, and he ultimately will return to them at a reasonable salary. Had not the cause of Owen Nolan’s injury been an issue, they would certainly have bought him out prior to the July 30th deadline. In any event, his salary will not count against the cap.

Realistically, the Leafs were not going to spend five to seven million dollars on a star player. Many excellent “second tier” players remain unsigned. When the flurry of signings subsides, bargains will be available. Jason Allison, Eric Lindros and Alexander Mogilny are all likely destined for the centre of the hockey universe. Along with Jeff O’Neill, they will make the Buds competitive this season.

Moreover, unlike the Flyers, the Leafs have allowed themselves some cap flexibility for the near future. This is remarkable given that the Leafs in 2003-04 had spent close to $60 million in salaries. Both Sundin and Belfour are in the final year of their contracts. Their salaries combine to more than $11 million. The Leafs could have bought out Belfour and taken a shot at Khabibulin, but had they failed to sign the Bulin Wall they risked not having a goalie comparable to either.

While other teams have moved quickly and anxiously, Ferguson has opted to tread carefully in the Brave New Cap World. This is not unwise. There is some method to his madness, and maybe Leaf fans should take a valium and give him a chance to build his team the way he wants.