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COMMENTARY ON THE LATEST HOCKEY NEWS
Originally posted October, 2003


It is only one week into the season, but we are already witnessing an ominous sign -- goal scoring is down almost a full goal per game over last year. After 42 games, NHL teams have scored a total of 190 goals, a rate of 4.52 goals per game. This is well below last year's average of 5.31 goals per game, a figure that was already giving hockey pundits great concern. If the current trend maintains itself, it may compel NHL officials to consider more drastic rule changes to curb the drought.

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The number of unrestricted free agent veterans yet unsigned would be disturbing were it not clear that this is a case where market economics has taken hold of the NHL. There are so many good, veteran players available that this competition is driving down salaries. Of course, this is assisted by the general uncertainty created by the expiry of the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) in September, 2004. These unemployed veterans, having once played for considerably larger sums of money, now find themselves confronted by a new economic reality. They are nevertheless unwilling to settle for the pittance being offered them. Doug Gilmour and Kirk Muller saw fit to retire rather than play for a paltry sum (in the relative terms of an NHL hockey player). Dmitry Yushkevich, Oleg Tverdovsky and Jamie Storr have elected to play in Russia for the same reason. There remain some exceptional veteran players -- Adam Oates, Cliff Ronning, Steve Thomas, Phil Housley -- who are waiting for the right offer, one which may never come. In the face of the coming labour strife, it makes one wonder whether the NHL really needs a salary cap. The same market forces that have worked for the players in years past might well work against them in the face of dwindling revenues. While one may reasonably wonder about how much red ink the teams really are bleeding, it is clear that the NHL cannot sustain the same salary levels that its richer cousins in football, baseball and basketball have maintained. Even without a salary cap, the owners will eventually resist the temptation to sign players to Alexei Yashin / Jaromir Jagr type contracts. The NHL does not have a lucrative national television contract, and that is not likely to appear on the immediate horizon. The only problem is that if the NHL owners on the whole find themselves becoming economically more responsible, and collectively impose fiscal restraints on themselves without the need for a salary cap, the players will cry "collusion".

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The serious eye injury suffered by Montreal forward Chad Kilger has revived the debate concerning whether players should be compelled to wear visors. It is a wonder that the debate even went into hibernation following the horrific injury suffered by Bryan Berard a few years ago. The position of the NHL Players Association remains that the players ought to retain the "option" to wear a visor. Loosely translated, that means that players should be permitted the luxury of being stupid. Unfortunately, it may take a few more serious injuries before the players decide that the discomfort associated with wearing a visor is superceded by safety.

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Wisely, J.S. Giguere signed off on a four year, $20 million (US) contract to tend goal for the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. Not so wisely, Marty Turco turned down a three year, $12 million (US) contract to tend goal for the Dallas Stars. Both goaltenders enjoyed a remarkable, breakout season in 2002-03, but the Ducks and the Stars can be forgiven if they have visions of Jose Theodore dancing through their heads. One good season does not a great goalie make. Theodore, after fashioning a stratospheric 2001-02 season, signed a huge contract and then proceeded to plummet rapidly to earth last year. Obviously, both the Ducks and the Stars are prepared to take that risk (and this is noteworthy given the pending expiry of the CBA). As we predicted, however, Turco eventually came to his senses and signed recently for almost the same amount he turned down a week earlier. To be fair to him, it appears Dallas attempted a sleight of hand originally by attempting to divert much of that $12 million into 2004-05, when a lockout or strike is anticipated.

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The retirement of Leaf defenceman Robert Svehla came mercifully, but it might already be too late for John Ferguson Jr. to find an established defenceman to replace him. Svehla's retirement frees up about $4 million in salary, ostensibly the stumbling block all summer in the Leafs' negotiations with other defencemen. There are not many defencemen left on the free market. The agent of one of them, Ken Klee, has already suggested that his client is speaking to other clubs. Two others -- Dmitri Yushkevich and Oleg Tverdovsky -- have already signed with Russian elite teams, although both appear to have "out" clauses in their contracts to permit them to go to NHL teams. It's not likely the Leafs will welcome back Yushkevich with open arms, given his history with the Leafs. If Toronto can't entice Klee or even Tverdovsky to enter the fold, they'll have to negotiate a trade or go with one of their unproven prospects. The Leaf D might look like Swiss cheese come October.

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It is now confirmed that former New Jersey defenceman Oleg Tverdovsky has signed with Russian Super League team Avangard Omsk. One Russian newspaper report pegs his new salary at $3 million US per season. It appears that he does have an "out" clause, permitting Tverdovsky to leave if an NHL team makes him an acceptable offer (presumably one for more money). It is difficult to know whether Tverdovsky is indeed getting as much money as is being reported. Russian newspapers are highly unreliable, but the Avangard team is owned by Russian oil billionaire Roman Abramovich. Abramovich is better known for being the owner of the Chelsea Football Club. He has pumped considerably sums of money into that team, purchasing the contracts of several high profile soccer stars. He recently paid a 16.8 million pound transfer fee for Argentine striker Hernan Crespo. It may well be that Abramovich is applying the same free-spending approach to his hockey team, although it is hardly likely that Russian hockey can prove to be as lucrative as European soccer. (To be fair, it's doubtful that Abramovich really cares whether or not his sports teams make him money.) While NHL clubs were interested in his services, Tverdovsky probably has received no offer for better than one-third of that alleged Russian contract. If he is indeed making $3 million US per season, it is unlikely we will see Tverdovsky in the NHL in the foreseeable future.

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By picking up Johan Hedberg in a trade with the Penguins, is there any doubt that Vancouver GM Brian Burke is sending a clear message to Dan Cloutier that his job as a starter is in jeopardy? While Cloutier's regular season play has been excellent, he has been less than stellar in the playoffs the last two seasons. Burke has been patient, but he must feel that he needs to light a bit of a fire under Cloutier. Though the exhibition season has yet to begin, Vancouver is already thinking about April. The Canucks can ill afford another playoff disappointment.

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